Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
